Forecasting demand in RDUH breast care services and the impact of urban development


30 Second Summary

Between 2011 and 2021, the population served by Royal Devon & Exeter Hospital grew by 13%, doubling the national average, leading to long waiting lists. This project aims to develop a forecasting tool for breast services to predict referrals and service demand, inform workforce planning, and justify infrastructure expansion. It will also predict geographical demand changes for optimal service locations.

Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
Forecasting
Streamlit
Cancer
2-week Wait
Authors
Affiliation

Gill Baker

Royal Devon University Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust

Brandon Jones

Royal Devon University Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust

Kat Pamatmat

Royal Devon University Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust

Historically there has been a lack of data science or accurate forecasting in developing capacity. Between 2011 and 2021 the growth in the population served by the Royal Devon & Exeter Hospital rose by 13% which was twice the average national population growth. This increase in demand was not met by sufficient increase in physical infrastructure or capacity. This led to significant waiting list problems with RD&E having some of the longest waiting patients in the country. Exeter and surrounding areas have high housing targets and predict further growth as well as significant growth in an ageing population.

This project aims

The project objectives are