Predicting the future demand for Renal replacement therapy


30 Second Summary

Kidney disease is projected to be the fifth leading cause of premature deaths globally by 2040. Rising demand for dialysis and transplants exceeds capacity in England. The project aims to develop a model using forecasting techniques to predict future demand and address it by increasing home dialysis or introducing a new dialysis centre.

Forecasting
Renal
Dialysis
Author
Affiliation

Sandhya Radha Krishnakumar

NHS England

The problem: Kidney disease is projected to be the fifth leading cause of premature deaths globally by 2040. With people living longer and having more comorbidities, the demand for dialysis and transplants is rising and exceeding capacity. In England, the system is at full capacity for in-centre dialysis, requiring immediate action and a long-term strategy to optimise care.

The result: Incorporate forecasting techniques to predict the future demand based on population prediction (data available in ONF and prevalence data available in QOF).

The aim: To develop a model to help tackle this demand - either increasing home dialysis or introducing a new dialysis centre